Team Hedge Fund

“. Although the 2010 peak in the Alt-A / Option-ARM reset schedule doesn’t occur until July, with a much larger peak in mid-2011, a small initial round of resets is already in progress, having started about November of last year. I would expect that if we are indeed at risk of a second wave of mortgage defaults and credit strains, it will show up first as a surprising jump in 30-day mortgage delinquencies in the data we see over the next 2-4 months. I do not expect quarters upon quarters of uncertainty. It may take longer to observe the full effect of continued mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, but we are at about the point where the data would depart from the market’s “all clear” expectations if credit pressures are likely to resume with force.”
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